RESUMO
Background: There is substantial variation in COVID-19 lethality across countries. In addition, in countries with populations with extreme economic inequalities, such as Mexico, there are regional and local differences in risk factors for COVID-19 death. The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that the risk of death in Mexican COVID-19 patients was associated with the time between symptom onset and hospitalization and/or with the healthcare site. Also, death prognostic models were developed. Methods: The study included two COVID-19 inpatient cohorts, one prospective and one retrospective from Chiapas, Mexico. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were collected, and the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection was performed using RT-qPCR in samples collected seven days since symptom onset. The 30-day mortality, since symptom onset, was the outcome, and clinical variables at the first 48 hours of hospitalization were independent factors. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted. Results: Of the 392 patients included, 233 died (59.4%). The time between symptom onset and hospitalization, the healthcare site and sex were not related to the 30-day mortality. Three death prognostic models were developed (AUC between 0.726 and 0.807). Age, LDH, AST, and lymphocyte count were included in all models, OSI-WHO Classification (Non-invasive ventilation or high-flow oxygen, and mechanical ventilation with or without organ support/ECMO) and leukocyte count in two models, and diabetes and diarrhea in one model. Conclusion: The population evaluated had underlying deteriorated health before COVID-19 compared with regional and country population. The factors that determine the COVID-19 mortality risk in a relatively healthy population are sex, age and comorbidities. However, as this study shows, when populations have underlying poor health, some of these factors lose their associations with mortality risk, and others become more important.
RESUMO
BACKGROUNDPoint-of-care rapid tests to identify SARS-CoV-2 can be of great help because, in principle, they allow decisions to be made at the site of care for treatment, or for the separation of cohorts avoiding cross-infection, especially in emergency situations. METHODSA cross sectional study in adults requesting care in Emergency Rooms (ER), or the outpatient clinics of referral hospitals for COVID-19, to define the diagnostic characteristics of a rapid antigen test for SARS-CoV-2 (the Abbott Panbio) having as a gold standard the RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2. Health personnel in a routine situation within an active pandemic in several cities of Mexico performed the tests. RESULTSA total of 1,069 participants with a mean age of 47 years (SD 16 years), 47% with a self-reported comorbidity, and an overall prevalence of a positive RT-PCR test of 45%, were recruited from eight hospitals in Mexico. Overall sensitivity of the Panbio test was 54.4% (95%CI 51-57) with a positive likelihood ratio of 35.7, a negative likelihood ratio of 0.46 and a Receiver-Operating Characteristics curve area of 0.77. Positivity for the rapid test depended strongly on an estimate of the viral load (Cycle threshold of RT-PCR, Ct), and the days of symptoms. With a Ct[≤]25, sensitivity of the rapid test was 0.82 (95%CI, 0.76-0.87). For patients during the first week of symptoms sensitivity was 69.6% (95%CI 66-73). On the other hand, specificity of the rapid test was above 97.8% in all groups. CONCLUSIONSThe Panbio rapid antigen test for SARS-CoV-2 has a good specificity, but due to low and heterogeneous sensitivity in real life, a negative test in a person with suggestive symptoms at a time of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 requires confirmation with RT-PCR, and after the first week of symptoms, sensitivity decreases considerably.
